Are the sanctions scary as they paint?

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The Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation on the eve of the introduction of sanctions on the case of the scioning case asked for automakers to estimate the potential risks of termination of imports of automotive components and industrial equipment to Russia.

The question is not idle, because, firstly, the dependence of the auto industry from importing nodes and parts, as well as equipment for the production of cars and components is very high. Secondly, the influence of sanctions led to the collapse of the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter Classic car assembly in Nizhny Novgorod at the capacity of the gas group. Thirdly, the localization of manufactured cars is still low, and any restrictive measures can lead to the cessation of production in the industry, in which dozens and hundreds of thousands are busy. In particular, the «Damocles sword» hangs over the enterprises of the GAZ Group.

The request of the ministry was sent to both domestic automakers and foreign companies with production in the Russian Federation. Specialists of the industry consider the risks of the real influence of sanctions on the Russian auto industry minimal, excluding a narrow segment of special-purpose vehicles.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation considers it necessary to form a special import substitution program based on the list of critical autocomponents. According to the calculations of officials under it, funds are needed from the budget in the amount of 150 billion rubles.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation responded to the instructions of the Dmitry Kozak, who demanded to analyze the effect of sanctions. The fact is that last week is a package of sanctions in the scripture case, within the framework of which restrictions on export-import operations are superimposed.

However, restrictions are still concerned about the ban on the supply, which in the United States refer to the concept of «national security». This applies primarily to enterprises of the defense complex. The list is well known. However, the nuance is that from the lack of clear understanding and criteria and the mechanism of new restrictions may suffer from suppliers to Russia of civilian products, consumer equipment, including cars.

However, sources in foreign concerns suggest that it is not yet for themselves the threat of termination of imports in the Russian Federation. Their work strategy on the Russian market is to embed Russian enterprises to their vertical technological chains.

Although they note that immediately after the introduction of any sanctuction package, the first time is observed a high level of nervousness in relations with foreign counterparties.

Only Russian autocontraceans report on the risks due to sanctions. At the beginning of August, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation prepared the concept of the development program of Russian high-tech industries, including auto components and systems for the automotive industry. Interests of the program were called automakers Gas, Kamaz and Sollers Group.

The officials of the Ministry of Industry will want to identify the real «risk zones» for the supply of autocomponents like a survey.